China's Inner Circle Reveals Big Unrest
By Erik Eckholm
BEIJING - A startlingly frank new report from the Communist
Party's inner sanctum describes a spreading pattern of "collective protests
and
group incidents" arising from economic, ethnic and religious
conflicts in China and says relations between party officials and the masses
are
"tense, with conflicts on the rise."
The unusual report, produced by a top party research group
and published this week by a Central Committee press, describes mounting
public anger over inequality, corruption and official
aloofness and it paints a picture of seething unrest almost as bleak as
any drawn by
dissidents abroad. It describes a growing pattern of large
protests, sometimes involving tens of thousands of people, and an
incident in
which a defiant farmer cut off a tax collector's ear.
The report warns that the coming years of rapid change
- driven in part by China's plans to accelerate the opening of its markets
to foreign
trade and investment - are likely to mean even greater
social conflict. It makes urgent but vague recommendations for "system
reforms" that
can reduce public grievances.
"Our country's entry into the World Trade Organization
may bring growing dangers and pressures, and it can be predicted that in
the
ensuing period the number of group incidents may jump,
severely harming social stability and even disturbing the smooth
implementation of
reform and opening up," states the report, "China
Investigation Report 2000-2001: Studies of Contradictions Among the People
Under New Conditions."
The study was conducted by a research group of the Central
Committee's organization department, which runs crucial party affairs including
promotions, training and discipline. The department is
headed by Zeng Qinghong, a powerful and secretive adviser to the party
chief, Jiang
Zemin, who is widely believed to be seeking higher office,
and it appears to represent an attempt by Mr. Zeng or other senior officials
to set a reform-oriented agenda for party deliberations
and the leadership changes expected in the next few years.
To make the study, researchers visited several provinces
and worked with other party scholars to review trends in 11 provinces.
The
308-page report cites growing social and economic
inequality and official corruption as over-arching sources of discontent.
The income
gap is approaching the "alarm level," it says, with disparities
widening between city and countryside, between the fast-growing east
coast and the stagnant interior, and within urban
populations. The report describes corruption as "the main fuse exacerbating
conflicts
between officials and the masses."
Protests of all kinds have become more common as China
changes from a state-run economy - a risky course the leadership
feels is necessary to
China's long-term growth - and as the public becomes more
assertive about rights.
Workers laid off from failing state enterprises have protested
misuse of company assets by managers and failure to pay pensions and living
stipends. Farmers angered by unbearable taxes and callous
officials have had numerous deadly encounters with the police.
The report, published by the party's Central Compilation
and Translation Press, was available for purchase on Friday at the press's
office, where buyers were trickling in based on word-of-mouth.
But it has not yet been widely publicized or sold in the country's bookstores.
The study was intended, its introduction says, to analyze
the causes of growing popular unrest and to propose countermeasures, and
its findings
reflected special research in selected provinces.
Its somber analysis contrasts starkly with the upbeat messages
generally offered in official speeches and newspapers, and it is
unclear why central party officials broke with the
tradition of suppressing sensitive information.
The book is at once a call for vigilance against threats
to the social order and a plea for speedy reforms within the party and
government,
such as strengthening the legal system, reducing the number
of local officials and expanding "socialist democracy." It warns that economic
development must benefit the majority of people and that
victims of change must be fairly compensated, an implicit admission that
this has
often not happened.
At the same time, it attacks the notion that Marxism is
obsolescent, calls for more "ideological work" to inculcate an innovative
spirit and
aims to buttress the party's continued monopoly on power
through "system innovation."
Beyond stimulating discussion, the report could represent
an effort by Mr. Zeng or others to lay out their credentials as the Communist
Party
enters an uncertain transition and chooses new leaders.
Mr. Jiang, who is also president, and other top leaders are expected to
relinquish
most of their party and government posts over the next
two years.
The report provides no estimate of the number of disturbances,
but its strong language suggests that the scale of demonstrations and riots
has
been greater than revealed by the official press or in
reports abroad.
While security agencies have not been able to prevent such
incidents, they have so far prevented disaffected workers and farmers in
different
regions from linking up and forming networks that
could pose an organized challenge to Communist rule.
The government's response to unrest has been two-pronged:
containment and reform. In well-publicized speeches last year, President
Jiang and
others described the need to "nip in the bud" any threats
to social stability, which in practice has meant stricter policing of dissenters
and tighter curbs on publishing.
This year, a national "strike-hard campaign" against crime
has included a jump in arrests and prison sentences for those accused of
stirring
ethnic divisions in regions such as Xinjiang, the heavily
Uighur Muslim province in the west. Independent labor organizers have also
been jailed.
This week, the commander of the People's Armed Police,
the paramilitary anti-riot force, told his troops that they must step up
preparations to control "sudden incidents" and improve
coordination with local police forces.
"We must explore reform of weapons and equipment allocation,
ensuring sequential deployment and rapid response," said the commander,
Wu
Shuangzhan, in a speech reported in The People's Armed
Police News. Though the country is generally stable, he said, "we
must be crystal
clear about the stern developments we face in our work."
At same time, party leaders are pushing internal change.
They have made public spectacles of selected corrupt officials and are
now
requiring all officials to study new ideological formulations,
attributed to Mr. Jiang, which are said to call for creative change
while safeguarding party rule. The government has started
with much fanfare a program to increase investment in neglected western
and rural
parts of the country and has vowed, without saying how,
to increase farm incomes.
The new report gives general prescriptions, such as adopting
economic and tax policies to reduce the income gap, improving social security
for workers and building "socialist democracy" in which
people have more control over their affairs.
"In recent years some areas have, because of poor handling
and multiple other reasons, experienced rising numbers of group incidents
and their
scale has been expanding, frequently involving over a
thousand or even ten thousand people," it says.
And protests are becoming more confrontational, the report
says. "Protesters frequently seal off bridges and block roads, storm
party
and government offices, coercing party committees and
government and there are even criminal acts such as attacking, trashing,
looting and arson."
Among the specific incidents the report cites was one in
Xinning County, Hunan Province, where a resisting farmer cut off the ear
of a
township party official trying to collect fees. In Longshan
County, also in Hunan, two officials died in a clash with protesters.
The groups participating in protests, the report says,
"are expanding from farmers and retired workers to include workers still
on the job,
individual business owners, decommissioned soldiers and
even officials, teachers and students."
The report adds that "hostile forces" at home and abroad,
seeking to create social turmoil, sometimes fan the divisions over ethnicity,
religion and human rights.
The book's prediction of increased conflict as China enters
the World Trade Organization suggests the complex challenge to those hoping
for
more democracy. Political liberals inside China, and many
business leaders and scholars abroad, say that growing trade, foreign
investment and private ownership and the spreading use
of the Internet here will push China toward free speech, rule of
law and more
accountable government. Just this week, as President
Bush endorsed renewal of normal trade status for China, he said, "Open
trade is a
force for freedom in China, a force for stability in Asia
and a force for prosperity in the United States."
Officials fear that the predicted jump in unemployment
and availability of jobs independent of the state will lead more people
to fight the
system. And, for the next few years at least, that could
mean more, not fewer, arrests.