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Section2.4Analysis of Population Projections

When we introduced projection functions that define a sequence recursively, \(x_{n+1} = f(x_n)\), we discussed the relationship between fixed points of the projection function and equilibria of the sequence being studied. In this section, we will consider the analysis of projection functions in order to study the stability of equilibria. A stable equilibrium is likely to be observed in a physical setting. An unstable equilibrium is unlikely to be observed as small deviations from equilibrium push the system away from the steady state.

We will first consider a prototype example, where the projection function is a linear function. That system generalizes the geometric sequence related to constant per capita growth. For more complex models, we will then discuss using a linear approximation near the fixed point (i.e., a tangent line) to analyze equilibrium stability. We conclude with a graphical representation of sequences generated by projection functions that is commonly referred to as a cobweb diagram.

Subsection2.4.1Linear Projection Functions

We begin by considering the consequence of using a linear function as a projection function. Mathematics texts usually introduce linear functions using the slope–intercept form, \(f(x)=mx+b\) where \(m\) and \(b\) are model parameters (slope and intercept). However, we will more frequently use the point–slope form, \(f(x)=m(x-a)+b\), which has slope \(m\) and passes through a point \((a,b)\), or more precisely, \(f(a)=b\). As an additional warning, note in advance that we will often use symbols other than \(m\) to represent slope.

Example2.4.1

Consider a population model that uses a constant per capita growth rate \(r\) for which we introduce an emigration term that is constant, say \(E_{n} = m\) (for migration). Then our population model would be \begin{equation*}\hbox{New Population} = \hbox{Old Population} + \hbox{Natural Growth} - \hbox{Emigration},\end{equation*} which using sequences would be written \begin{equation*}P_{n+1} = P_{n} + r \cdot P_n - m = (1+r) P_n - m.\end{equation*} The projection function for this model is linear with a slope \(\alpha = 1+r\) given by \begin{equation*}f(x) = \alpha x - m = (1+r)x - m.\end{equation*}

Example2.4.2

Consider a population that is decreasing by 5\% per year. Suppose an intervention is established that supplements the population by 100 new individuals per year. Express a recursive sequence model for this population and identify the projection function.

Solution
Example2.4.3

A loan balance grows by \(1/12\) of the annual percentage rate each month. But a monthly payment reduces the loan balance. Write down a recursive model for the loan balance \(B_n\) where \(n\) is the number of months since the loan began, \(r\) is the annual percentage rate and \(p\) is the amount of the monthly payment.

Solution

The first step in analysis is to identify the fixed points which we use to rewrite our function. A linear projection function \(f(x)=\alpha x + \beta\) for constants \(\alpha\) (alpha) and \(\beta\) (beta) has exactly one fixed point so long as \(\alpha \ne 1\). Recall that a fixed point is a solution \(x^*\) to the equation \(x=f(x)\): \begin{gather*} x^* = \alpha x^* + \beta\\ x^*-\alpha x^* = \beta \\ (1-\alpha) x^* = \beta \\ x^* = \frac{\beta}{1-\alpha} = \frac{-\beta}{\alpha-1}. \end{gather*} Because it is a fixed point, we know \(f(x^*)=x^*\) and the slope is \(\alpha\). Rewriting \(f(x)\) in point–slope form, we find the alternative representation \begin{equation*}f(x) = \alpha(x-x^*) + x^*.\end{equation*}

The new representation allows us to rewrite our recursive equation for the sequence. Suppose that \(x_n\) refers to a sequence generated by the projection function \(x_{n+1} = f(x_n)\). Using the new representation, this becomes \begin{equation*}x_{n+1} = \alpha (x_n-x^*) + x^*.\end{equation*} This is equivalent to the equation \begin{equation*}x_{n+1} - x^* = \alpha (x_n - x^*).\end{equation*} If we define a new sequence \(z_n\) as the difference between \(x_n\) and the fixed point \(x^*\), \begin{equation*}z_n = x_n - x^*,\end{equation*} then our equation is showing that the difference is a geometric sequence, \begin{equation*}z_{n+1} = \alpha z_n.\end{equation*} Geometric sequences have an explicit formula \begin{equation*}z_n = z_0 \cdot \alpha^n,\end{equation*} which leads to an explicit formula for \(x_n\) given by \begin{equation*}x_n = x^* + z_n = x^* + (x_0 - x^*) \cdot \alpha^n.\end{equation*} For this reason, I call such sequences a shifted geometric sequence.

Now that we have an explicit formula for our sequence, we can analyze the stability. The geometric sequence \(z_n = z_0 \alpha^n\) corresponds to repeated multiplication by the same number \(\alpha\). When \(\alpha \lt 0\) (negative), the sings of \(z_n\) alternate between positive and negative. When \(|\alpha| \gt 1\), the sequence \(z_n\) grows in magnitude; when \(|\alpha| \lt 1\), the magnitude of \(z_n\) converges to zero.

Example2.4.5

Explore the results of the theorem through the interactive activity below. The figure below includes slides with which you will be able to choose the slope \(\alpha\), the initial value \(x_0\) and the desired fixed point \(x^*\). The first few terms of the result sequence defined by \(x_{n+1}=x^* + a (x_n - x^*)\) with initial value \(x_0\) will then be shown. The equilibrium value is shown with a dashed line.

Figure2.4.6Graph showing a shifted geometric sequence

Did you observe the following features?

  • When \(a \gt 1\), the sequence runs away from the equilibrium, staying on the same side as the initial value.
  • When \(0 \lt a \lt 1\), the sequence runs toward the equilibrium from the same side as the initial value.
  • When \(-1 \lt a \lt 0\), the sequence runs toward the equilibrium but alternating sides.
  • When \(a \lt -1\), the sequence runs away the equilibrium but alternating sides.

Subsection2.4.2Linearizing Projection Functions

Most functions are not linear, so it might seem that the previous results are limited to just a few special cases. However, one of the basic premises of calculus is that many functions can be approximated by linear functions locally. That linear function corresponds to the tangent line, which exists so long as the function is differentiable.

Proof

Now, suppose that we are working with a projection function \(f\) with a fixed point at \(x=x^*\). This means that \(f(x^*) = x^*\). The tangent line of the projection function around the fixed point will be \begin{equation*}L_{f,x^*}(x) = f(x^*) + f'(x^*) \cdot (x-x^*) = x^* + f'(x^*) \cdot (x-x^*).\end{equation*} By construction, we know that \(x=x^*\) is a fixed point of the linearized projection function and the stability of the fixed point as an equilibrium is determined by the slope \(f'(x^*)\). The following theorem guarantees that so long as \(|f'(x^*)| \ne 1\), the stability of the fixed point for the projection function is the same as the linearized function.

Subsection2.4.3Computer Assisted Analysis

Sage is a computer algebra system, meaning that it can work with formulas symbolically. When we use an algebra system, we have confidence that the algebra and calculus operations are performed properly. Here we will see how we can use Sage to assist in computing the value of the derivative quickly in order to analyze stability of fixed points.

The first thing we need to do is tell Sage what our independent variable will be. If we want to use \(x\) as our independent variable, then we start with a command var('x'). Technically, this is only needed for variables other than \(x\). But it is good practice for those times we choose another variable. Sometimes we will have other parameters in our model. We include those as variables as well.

The second step is to define our projection function. Recall that you must show every multiplication symbol. Once this is complete, we can solve the fixed point equation. In Sage, an assignment (setting a variable or function to an expression) is performed with a single equal sign =. A comparison of equality is performed with two equal signs ==. There is a possibility of multiple fixed points, so an algebra system reports the solutions to the equation as a list. An example follows.

Example2.4.9

Find the fixed points of the projection function \(f(x)=x+0.2x(1-0.005x)\).

This shows that the fixed points are \(x=0\) and \(x=200\). Sage internally stored those values as two equations in the list named fixPoints. Sage refers to entries in a list like a sequence, with the first value having index 0. That is, fixPoints[0] corresponds to the equation x==0.

The next step is to compute the derivative at each fixed point. In Sage, we will compute the derivative using the derivative command, which expects a formula and the variable of differentiation. We will define a new function \(f'(x)\), but the apostrophe in Sage represents a quotation and not a derivative. So let us use df(x) in place of \(f'(x)\). We can evaluate the derivative at our fixed point if we use a substitution based on our equations in fixPoints. The following commands must be done after the previous script has already been evaluated.

We can interpret our results for the projection function \begin{equation*}f(x)=x+0.2x(1-0.005x).\end{equation*} At the fixed point \(x = 0\), \(f(x)\) has slope \(f'(0)=1.2\). Since \(|f'(0)|=1.2 \gt 1\), we know that the fixed point is unstable and the sequence diverges away from the equilibrium. On the other hand, \(f(x)\) at the second fixed \(x=200\) has slope \(f'(200)=0.8\) so that \(|f'(200)| \lt 1\). This fixed point is stable and a sequence nearby would converge to that value. You can explore the dynamics of this sequence in the graph below, choosing different initial values.

Figure2.4.10Dynamic graph illustrating the sequence generated by \(f(x)=x+0.2x(1-0.005x)\) where a slider selects the initial value.